Orlando Weekly Real Estate Market Update 09.21.07

The Real Estate Market Synopsis

What Do Interest Rate Changes by The Fed Mean to The Home Seller?

Gitta Urbainczyk, P.A., E-Pro, RECS, CLHMS, Broker Associate

Finally, we have seen the right move by the Feds which will help the housing market and get some more buyers into the marketplace. However, not much will change the slide of the housing market over the next two years or so. In fact, the underlying issues of restrictive lending rules, the cut in sub-prime mortgage loans and the problem with funding jumbo loans are going to be with us for some time. They will cause major headaches for the housing market and the economy in general. Since the Feds reduced the key lending rate by ½ point just two days ago, two more mortgage lenders have gone out of business.

1.    Impac Lending

2.    E-Trade

So far, 158 lenders have collapsed due to no worldwide market to sell mortgage backed securities to. Therefore, they have run out of lending capital and have consequently closed their doors. Countrywide, the country's largest lender, has stopped all sub-prime lending and has laid off 12,000 employees. The interest rate move by the Fed is a great temporary fix for home sellers because it gets more buyers into the market, especially into the lower end. However, the key interest rate reduction will not compensate for the lack of capital in the mortgage market.

The implementation of restricted lending rules and the elimination of sub-prime mortgages will be major problems hampering the cure of current housing ills. Sub-prime mortgages had a place in the real estate market and were the cause of the major real estate boom over the past four years. Losing out on this huge market share will have a major negative effect on the real estate market and the economy to come. However, if you are a smart seller, here is a great video tip from Barbara Corcoran, the country's real estate guru, on "How to Sell Your Home Without Losing Your Shirt "

Click Here: Barbara Corcoran - NBC

(As seen on NBC - The Today Show)

General Market Indicators

 

This week, the real estate inventory has lightly increased by 150 homes. This is not good, as any increase simply adds to the misery. Expect the market to further increase due to the foreclosures hitting the market. The increase to 31,486 homes, while insignificant, means a net increase of 400 homes since the beginning of the month. The unsold inventory throughout the various counties we are tracking is still at very high numbers. Osceola County leads the pack with 38 months. Seminole County is the best with 14 months.

 

Since the 1st of January 2007, unsold inventory has a net increase of 8480 homes.

 

The number of sold homes, compared to last year for the same period, is 43 % lower, which reflects the start of last year's decline in home sales. In comparison to the same period in 2005, sales are 59% lower. Sales for the 4-county region are 37% below last year. As we continue into the fall, the gap between last year and 2005 is going to narrow. In the fall of 2005/6, we started to see home sales tapering off. The market continues to show a lot of weakness. Buyers are very concerned about the prices dropping and are making lower offers.

 

  • Market Indicator – 100% buyer market
  • Sales Demand Activities – Slow/Unchanged
  • Sales last year (August) to this year (August) - 41% lower
  • Resale Inventory increased by 200 homes
  • Trend Indicator flat to downwards
  • Cumulative Market Time Volusia County (125 days), Seminole County (101 days), Lake County (137 days)
  • Unsold Inventory Supply - Orange County (21.4 months), Seminole County (14.0 months), Lake County (26.0 months), Volusia County (20.1 months), Osceola County (38 months)
  • Areas that face the biggest challenge to sell homes are: Lake, Volusia & Osceola Counties.

 

Condo Sales

Update: 09/01/07

 

County

For Sale

Sold past 30 days

Month of Inventory

Seminole

789

40

20

Orange

3202

87

37

Osceola

852

29

29

Volusia

497

10

50

Lake

148

4

37

 

New Condo Website, Click here

 

The area marked in red shows inventory availability of over 12 months.

 

Seminole County

     

Update 09/01/07

 

Price Range

Active

Sold

Sold %

Inventory on the Market

Sold Trend

100-199

1054

70

6.6%

15.1

up

200-249

833

57

6.8%

14.6

dw

250-299

771

53

6.9%

14.5

up

300-349

414

28

7%

14.8

dw

350-399

298

24

8%

12.4

dw

400-449

218

15

7%

14.5

dw

450-499

210

17

8%

12.4

dw

500-549

125

14

11%

8.9

up

550-599

83

9

11%

9.2

up

600-649

61

4

7%

15.3

dw

650-699

56

3

5%

18.7

up

700-749

35

3

9%

11.7

up

750-799

42

2

5%

21.0

up

800-850

31

1

3%

31.0

unch

851 up

4690

336

7%

14.0

 
 

8921

636

7%

sales

43% dw

         

50% up

         

7% unch

 

 

The area marked in red shows inventory availability of over 12 months.

 

Orange County

     

Update 09/01/07

 

Price Range

Active

Sold

Sold %

Inventory On The Market

Sold Trend

100-199

3196

178

5.6%

18.0

up

200-249

2716

135

5.0%

20.1

dw

250-299

2351

109

4.6%

21.6

dw

300-349

1404

54

4%

26.0

dw

350-399

1211

55

5%

22.0

dw

400-449

695

20

3%

34.8

dw

450-499

594

18

3%

33.0

dw

500-549

329

16

5%

20.6

up

550-599

319

7

2%

45.57

dw

600-649

170

9

5%

18.9

up

650-699

182

7

4%

26.0

unch

700-749

74

2

3%

37.0

dw

750-799

112

5

4%

22.4

dw

800-850

83

5

6%

16.6

up

851 -up

15081

711

5%

21.2

 
 

28517

1331

5%

sales

64% dw

         

29% up

         

7% unch

 

The area marked in red shows inventory availability of over 12 months.

 

Volusia County

     

Update 09/01/07

 

Price Range

Active

Sold

Sold %

Inventory On The Market

Sold Trend

100-199

1512

109

7.2%

13.9

dw

200-249

692

35

5.1%

19.8

up

250-299

526

19

3.6%

27.7

up

300-349

256

4

2%

64.0

dw

350-399

234

8

3%

29.3

up

400-449

118

4

3%

29.5

dw

450-499

93

0

0%

#DIV/0!

dw

500-549

52

0

0%

#DIV/0!

dw

550-599

54

1

1.9%

54.0

up

600-649

29

1

3%

29.0

unch

650-699

30

1

3%

30.0

unch

700-749

19

0

0%

#DIV/0!

unch

750-799

33

0

0%

#DIV/0!

unch

800-850

17

0

0%

#DIV/0!

unch

851 up

4127

204

5%

20.2

 
 

7792

386

5%

sales