Weekly Market Update 11-16-07

The Real Estate Market Synopsis

Orlando: A Great Buyer Market (But Where are the Buyers?)

Gitta Urbainczyk, P.A., E-Pro, RECS, CLHMS, Broker Associate

Everyone is asking the same question. Things have never been as confusing and upside down in the real estate business as they are now. Buyers are just standing by the sidelines or are unable to get approved for a mortgage. The headlines and news on the sub-prime mess is spreading throughout the real estate industry and infecting many other industries as well. The news is such that buyers, unless they absolutely have to buy a home, are in a "wait and see" attitude. Meanwhile, great deals are happening and buyers are still not budging.

It is absolutely amazing that even with huge price reductions there is no buyer activity whatsoever. Our pending contracts are some of the lowest I can remember in the past twenty years! Buyer inquires and showings by other agents are at such low levels that it seems nothing is going on.

Let me give you an example of how bad things really are. I just received an offer from another agent for a one-acre golf-front lot in Bella Collina for $275,000 which is in pre-foreclosure status. Bella Collina is a very upscale community on the shores of Lake Apopka in Montverde, where the lots in 2005 were selling like hotcakes in a lottery. Now, as fast as the prices were going up, they are coming crashing down, taking tons of people with them into very tough financial positions. In 2005, the lots in Bella Collina were selling at $600,000+ and now they are being sold off for pennies on the dollar in pre-foreclosure. The signs are everywhere of prices going down due to huge competition from builders, foreclosures, short sales and huge resale inventory.

  • Some Home Builders Could End Up Bankrupt (click here) and sell homes at bargain prices, according to Business Week. This will drop prices down by 20-30%, according to Forbes Magazine.

     

  • Another Florida Home Builder seen Sliding Into Bankruptcy – Click here for the story

 

Tallahassee: Forecasters now say worst downturn in 40 years has at least another year to go.

Forecasters: State fiscal pain will linger at least another year

"Baker and other economists said that until homeowners dropped expectations that they could sell their homes at the booming prices of just a few years ago, the state's real estate economy would not bounce back."

Here is the full story from the Tampa Herald Tribune - Click here!

 

General Market Indicators

The average home price in Orange County in October, compared to last year, dropped 4% while sales dropped 56% over the same period last year. In September, sales were down 60% by comparison. In Seminole County, the drop in sales was 58% over the same period. Prices were down by 9%. September showed a 60% decline in resales and a 6% drop in the average home price. Volusia County was leading the pack with an 18% drop in the average home price and a 41% drop in sales compared to the same October month last year. In Lake County, the average price of a home for October was down 12% and sales were down 28%. September numbers show a 17% drop in the average home price and a 36% drop in sales.

 

Condo Sales

Update: 11/01/07

 

County 

For Sale 

Sold past 30 days 

Month of Inventory 

Seminole 

783

40

20

Orange 

3254

87

37

Osceola 

908

29

31

Volusia 

543

17

32

Lake 

155

1

155

 

New Condo Website, Click here

 

The area marked in red shows inventory availability of over 12 months.

 

Seminole County 

   

Update 11/01/07

 

Price Range 

Active 

Sold 

Sold % 

Inventory on the Market

Sold Trend

100-199 

1178

72

6.1%

16.4

Up

200-249 

875

56

6.4%

15.6

Dw

250-299 

715

44

6.2%

16.3

Dw

300-349 

375

15

4.0%

25.0

Up

350-399 

293

23

8.0%

12.7

Up

400-449 

170

18

11.0%

9.4

Up

450-499 

191

13

7.0%

14.7

Up

500-549 

101

4

4.0%

25.3

Dw

550-599

88

2

2.0%

44.0

Unch

600-649 

66

2

3.0%

33.0

Dw

650-699 

47

3

6.0%

15.7

Up

700-749 

40

2

5.0%

20.0

Unch

750-799 

40

1

3.0%

40.0

Up

800-850 

35

0

0.0%

#DIV/0!

Dw

851 up 

4666

290

6.0%

16.1

 
 

8880

545

6.0% 

sales 

36% dw

     

50% up

     

14% unch

 

 

The area marked in red shows inventory availability of over 12 months.

 

Orange County 

   

Update 11/01/07

 

Price Range 

Active 

Sold 

Sold %

Inventory On The Market

Sold Trend

100-199 

3732

185

5.0%

20.2

Up

200-249 

2850

126

4.4%

22.6

Up

250-299 

2215

117

5.3%

18.9

Up

300-349 

1307

69

5.0%

18.9

Up

350-399 

1190

44

4.0%

27.0

Up

400-449 

644

28

4.0%

23.0

Up

450-499 

530

20

4.0%

26.5

Up

500-549 

267

12

4.0%

22.3

Up

550-599 

269

15

6.0%

17.9

Up

600-649 

164

6

4.0%

27.3

Up

650-699 

167

4

2.0%

41.8

Up

700-749 

86

1

1.0%

86.0

Dw

750-799 

116

4

3.0%

29.0

Up

800-850 

79

1

1.0%

79.0

Dw

851 -up 

15130

717

5.0%

21.1

 
 

28746

1349

5.0%

sales 

14% dw

     

86% up

     

0% unch

 

The area marked in red shows inventory availability of over 12 months.

 

Volusia County 

   

Update 11/01/07

 

Price Range 

Active 

Sold 

Sold %

Inventory On The Market

Sold Trend

100-199 

1675

125

7.5%

13.4

Up

200-249 

672

33

4.9%

20.4

Up

250-299 

479

23

4.8%

20.8

Up

300-349 

254

6

2.0%

42.3

Unch

350-399 

222

7

3.0%

31.7

Unch

400-449 

94

3

3.0%

31.3

Up

450-499 

89

0

0.0%

#DIV/0!

Dw

500-549 

54

2

4.0%

27.0

Up

550-599 

46

0 

0.0% 

#DIV/0! 

Unch

600-649 

20

1

5.0%

20.0

Up

650-699 

35

0 

0.0% 

#DIV/0! 

Unch

700-749 

22

0 

0.0% 

#DIV/0! 

Unch

750-799 

40

0

0.0%

#DIV/0!

Dw

800-850 

26

0 

0.0% 

#DIV/0! 

Unch

851 up 

4222

231

5.0%

18.3

 
 

7950

431

5.0% 

sales 

14% dw

     

43% up

     

43% unch

 

The area marked in red shows inventory availability of over 12 months.

 

Osceola County 

   

Update 11/01/07

 

Price Range 

Active 

Sold 

Sold %

Inventory O